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The 2005 environment will produce a construction
industry that once again shows a varied performance by major sector.There
will be a shift from recent years, though, as this time it’s expected
that single family housing will lose momentum, as it settles back
from its record pace in 2004.With growth anticipated for income
properties (commercial building and multifamily housing) plus institutional
building, combined with the possibility of a slight gain for public
works, total construction in 2005 is forecast to advance 2% to $586
billion.
The following are the main points for the 2005
construction market:
- Single family housing will settle back from
its record high in 2004, due to moderately higher mortgage rates
as well as reduced first-time homebuyer demand in some overpriced
markets. A 3% drop in dollar volume is forecast, corresponding
to a 7% decline in the number of dwelling units to 1.425 million.
- Income properties will climb 9% in dollar
volume and 5% in square feet. Offices, hotels, and warehouses
are expected to see growth of at least 10%, while the upturn for
multifamily housing will be more modest. Store construction will
see a small increase in dollar volume, although square footage
will be slightly down from a very strong 2004.
- Institutional building will advance 7% in
dollar volume and 3% in square feet. The gradual improvement in
the fiscal health of some states, combined with money coming from
the huge volume of bond measures passed in recent years, will
help school construction turn upward. Healthcare facilities should
also see a higher volume of construction.
- Manufacturing construction is expected to
rise 14%, as firms continue to increase capital spending.The level
of plant construction estimated for 2005 remains very weak by
recent standards, however, down 43% compared to the most recent
peak in 1997.
- Public works will edge up 2%, following
the 4% increase in 2004.A sharp rise for water supply and sewer
projects contributed to this year’s public works gain, and
is not likely to be repeated in 2005.The likely candidates for
growth next year will be highways and bridges,assuming that Congress
is able to pass a new multiyear federal transportation bill.
- Electric utilities will continue to fall
from the record high achieved in 2001, with an 8% decline expected
for 2005. Further retrenchment for power plants will be partially
cushioned by more transmission line work.
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