By Richard Branch, Chief Economist, Dodge Data & Analytics
BEDFORD, MA – FEBRUARY 24, 2020 – The mounting number of cases of COVID-19 (Coronavirus) has roiled stock markets around the world and added concern that global economies will be materially impacted. Estimates from Moody’s Analytics suggest that first-quarter U.S. GDP growth could be reduced by nearly 0.45 percentage points as a result of the outbreak with tourism and travel taking the largest hit among U.S. industries. If the outbreak is contained quickly, U.S. economic growth should rebound in the second quarter.
The most notable impact comes from supply chains for goods from China. These supply chains have been crimped as Chinese workers remain at home, causing production to fall substantially. Here in the U.S., General Motors unions have warned that U.S. production could slow as parts dry up. Apple Inc. announced that it will not meet its first-quarter revenue projections as their China plants are shuttered. Even N.H.L hockey players have noted the shrinking supply of hockey sticks. Consumer sentiment is also taking a hit. Should containment of the virus be elusive, we could see consumer spending and business investment sour — which could cause a further drag on U.S. economic growth.
The construction industry is also not immune to challenges presented by the outbreak. A rough calculation suggests that nearly 30% of products typically used in U.S. building construction are imports from China, making the country the largest single supplier to the U.S. If the virus is not quickly contained and quarantines remain intact, supplies will continue to tighten causing building costs to continue to escalate, and potentially causing projects to be delayed or cancelled outright. The exact extent to which this happens will depend on the ability of U.S. builders to substitute products from China to domestic or other international suppliers. Note though, that many Asian countries, such as Japan, South Korea, and Vietnam that also export building products to the U.S. rely heavily on raw materials from China.
At present, our outlook continues to expect a modest decline in construction starts in 2020. The current outbreak is one of many issues facing the U.S. economy this year that will lead to a slowdown in overall economic growth and push starts lower. The issue, however, remains in flux. Dodge will continue to assess the impact of the COVID-19 virus in the coming months.
By Richard Branch, Chief Economist
BEDFORD, MA – January 30, 2020 – The advance reading for U.S. Gross Domestic Product in the fourth quarter came in at a close-to-expected annualized 2.1%. While likely to be revised in the coming months, it painted a picture of an economy that continues to hover near its potential rate.
A closer look at the details, however, suggests that there are reasons to expect slower growth in 2020. On the plus side, the fourth quarter pace of government spending picked up driven equally by state and local governments and federal defense spending. Trade also provided a sizeable positive contribution to the headline number as exports jumped and imports tumbled.
Total fixed investment was neutral in the fourth quarter. As expected, residential investment picked up in line with rising sales and construction of single family housing in the fourth quarter. However, nonresidential investment in both equipment and structures declined for the third consecutive quarter most likely due to uncertainty over trade policy. Inventories were also a net drag on headline GDP.
The consumer, who has been the stalwart of economic growth through most of 2019, took a concerning breather, however, as spending growth cooled from an annualized 4.6% in the second quarter and 3.1% in the third quarter to just 1.8% in the final three months of the year.
For the full year, the U.S. economy grew at a 2.3% pace, down from the 2.9% rate in 2018, but about on par with growth in 2017.
Looking ahead, labor constraints are likely to slow employment growth in 2020 making it harder for consumers to sustain their level of contribution to the economic growth. Business investment is also likely to remain sluggish as uncertainty over trade policy continues despite the Phase I trade deal signed between the U.S. and China in early-January. Residential construction will also struggle to gain a foothold as margins to build entry level homes for the ballooning millennial generation remain tight. All told, economic growth will slow but remain positive in 2020, allowing the longest expansion in U.S. history to continue.
By Kim Kennedy, Director of Forecasting
Payroll employment grew by 164,000 in July, following a downwardly revised increase of 193,000 in June. This month’s increase indicates that employment and the overall economy continue to grow even if the pace has slowed from last year and even though the economy has now been expanding for a decade. After increasing at a monthly rate of 223,000 in all of 2018, job growth slowed to 165,000 per month in the first seven months of 2019 and slowed further to just 140,000 in the most recent three months. Despite the slowing pace of growth, the unemployment rate remained steady at 3.7% in July. Even July’s wage growth, which has been particularly soft over the long stretch of the recovery, rose by a healthy 3.2% from a year earlier.
July’s employment growth was broad-based, with many industries showing gains. The service-producing sector dominated July gains with an increase of 133,000 jobs. Goods-producing industries gained just 15,000 and government grew by 16,000. Within services, the large education and healthcare sector advanced by a strong 66,000 jobs and professional/business services rose by 38,000.
Within the goods-producing sector, manufacturing gained 16,000 jobs as the motor vehicle and parts industry saw employment grow by a healthy 7,200 after a modest dip in June. At the same time, construction was only able to add 4,000 jobs in July after a more ambitious 18,000 gain in June. Within construction, the improvement came from specialty trades contractors, where employment rose by 7,400. Employment in residential building gained 1,400 and nonresidential building remained little changed, but heavy/civil engineering construction fell by 4,300 jobs.
The consensus believes this was a solid jobs report, signaling that the economy still has life left in it, but within the report were suggestions that the economy is slowing over and above the general slowdown in job growth. The average workweek declined (manufacturing has cut back overtime) and total hours have flattened in 2019. These cautionary indicators may be behind the Federal Reserve’s move to drop interest rates by a quarter percent earlier this week. The Fed cited a slowing global economy and a desire to shore up domestic growth as its reasons for the dip in interest rates. Uncertainty about trade policy is also giving the Fed cause for concern. In fact, Wall Street expects the Fed to continue lowering rates at its next meeting in September. While most don’t expect this jobs report to have much effect on the Fed’s rate decision, the administration’s decision to increase tariffs on Chinese imports may be more impactful.
Nonbuilding Construction and Nonresidential Building Rebound After a Weak April
NEW YORK – June 20, 2019 – At a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $757.0 billion, new construction starts in May climbed 10% from April, according to Dodge Data & Analytics. The increase continues the double-digit swings that were reported during the previous two months, when a 16% hike for total construction starts in March was followed by a 15% decline in April. Each of the three main construction sectors contributed to May’s 10% gain. Nonbuilding construction rebounded 32% after depressed activity in April, lifted by an especially strong amount of new power plant starts and an $800 million light rail project in the Minneapolis MN area. Nonresidential building improved 7%, supported by groundbreaking for two very large manufacturing plant projects. Residential building edged up 2%, with modest gains for both single family housing and multifamily housing. Through the first five months of 2019, total construction starts on an unadjusted basis were $295.0 billion, down 9% from the same period a year ago. On a twelve-month moving total basis, total construction starts for the twelve months ending May 2019 were 2% below the amount reported for the twelve months ending May 2018.
By Kim Kennedy, Director of Forecasting, Dodge Data & Analytics
BEDFORD, MA – May 3, 2019 – The job market seems to have bounced back in April after having experienced a mild case of the flu in February and only partial recovery in March. The number of payroll jobs grew by 263,000 in April after gaining just 56,000 in February and 189,000 in March. With this stronger gain in employment, the April unemployment rate slid to 3.6%, the lowest level in 50 years. Given its advanced age (the job market is now in its 10th year of expansion), the health of the labor market continues to surprise.
The heart of this month’s growth came from professional/business services (up by 76,000 jobs), healthcare (up 53,000), and hospitality (up 34,000). Construction payrolls also boosted job growth by a robust 33,000 in April. At the other extreme, the retail sector lost 12,000 jobs in April, continuing its downward slide.
The survey of households showed somewhat more fragility in the labor market than the establishment/payroll survey (reported above). According to this survey, the three main components – the number of people in the labor force, the number of people with jobs, and the number of unemployed people) all declined in April. The total labor force (a combination of those employed and those looking for work or unemployed) fell by 490,000 in April. The number of people employed fell by 103,000 April and the number of unemployed fell by 387,000 over the month. Because the number of unemployed fell by more than the number of employed, the unemployment rate was able to improve.
With a decline in the labor force during April, the labor force participation rate (the share of the 16+ population either employed or looking for a job) slipped to 62.8% – the same as a year earlier, but down from 63.0% in March and 63.2% in the first two months of the year. On the positive side, the participation rate remains above the low of 62.4% reached in September 2015.
The gains in average hourly earnings have also slowed in 2019 despite the very low unemployment rate and tightening labor market. In April, earnings rose 0.2% following increases of just 0.1% in March and January. Only February’s 0.4% gain matched levels seen near the end of 2018. Still, in the first four months of 2019, private sector wages were up 3.3% from a year earlier, much stronger than seen in prior years of the recovery. Construction wages have performed about average in 2019. Although April wages gained a stronger 0.4% over the month, construction wages were up 3.2% in the first four months of the year.
Overall, the April jobs report contained good news for the U.S. economy. It suggests that the first quarter’s ills were perhaps temporary, rather than a sign that the job market, and the entire U.S. economy, have reached the end of their lifecycle as recession nears. Even though it’s no longer a bounding pup, there may be some life in the old dog yet.
By Robert Murray, Chief Economist, Dodge Data & Analytics
BEDFORD, MA - April 26, 2019 - The U.S. economy grew at a surprisingly strong 3.2% in this year’s first quarter, according to the initial estimate from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Last year had seen deceleration in the rate of GDP growth, sliding from 4.2% in the second quarter to 2.2% in the fourth quarter, and for various reasons it was believed that growth for this year’s first quarter would continue that decelerating trend. These reasons included the partial government shutdown, harsh winter weather, and the waning benefits from the 2018 tax cuts.
The first quarter GDP reading was boosted by several factors. Inventory investment by firms contributed 0.7% to the top-line GDP gain, compared to just 0.1% in the fourth quarter. Exports in the first quarter advanced 3.7%, while imports (for which increases count as a subtraction to GDP) fell 3.7%. And, state and local government spending registered a 3.9% hike in the first quarter, which was its strongest quarterly increase in the past three years.
At the same time, the first quarter GDP report included some cautionary points, even with the strong top-line number. Consumer spending, the largest GDP component, grew just 1.2% in the first quarter, compared to a 2.6% gain for all of 2018. Nonresidential fixed investment rose just 2.7% in the first quarter, compared to a 6.9% gain for all of 2018. The nonresidential fixed investment reading in the first quarter was pulled down by a 0.8% drop for nonresidential fixed investment in structures, which marked the third straight quarterly decline for this series. In addition, residential fixed investment in the first quarter dropped 2.8%, representing its fifth straight quarterly decline, as the recent lackluster performance by single family housing continues to restrain overall economic growth.
On balance, despite the healthy 3.2% gain in the first quarter, the most recent GDP report remains consistent with the sense that the U.S. economy is decelerating from the 2.9% rate of growth reported for 2018 as a whole. The first quarter lift coming from firms building up inventories is not likely to be repeated, and the same holds true for the lift coming from net exports as well as state and local government spending. Furthermore, the subdued readings for nonresidential fixed investment in structures and residential fixed investment are consistent with the picture of a construction expansion that at the very least is now in the process of leveling off.
By Donna Laquidara-Carr, Ph.D., LEED AP, Industry Insights Research Director
BEDFORD, MA – April 23, 2019 – Since 2017, the USG+US Chamber of Commerce Commercial Construction Index has revealed that the biggest challenge facing contractors today is the shortage of skilled workers. One of the most direct ways to tackle this challenge is to be able to draw more people to the industry. The research conducted by Dodge Data & Analytics for the Index in Q1 2019 featured construction careers as a spotlight topic, which helps provide a better understanding of the advantages of a career in construction and how those are typically misunderstood, the aspects of a construction career that may be most appealing to people under 30 and the challenges faced by a fragmented industry in recruiting its workers.
Skilled Worker Shortages and Their Impacts
Consistently, since Q1 2017, over half of the general and specialty trade contractors who participate in the quarterly Commercial Construction Index survey state that they have a high level of difficulty finding skilled workers, and less than 10% report low to no difficulty. The consequences of these challenges are increasingly evident, with 70% of contractors in Q1 reporting that, due to this issue, they are challenged to meet schedule requirements, 63% reporting that they put in higher bids for projects and 40% turning down work opportunities.
Construction Careers: Myth and Reality
Part of the challenge with drawing people into the construction industry appears to be the public misperceptions of it compared to the reality of working in this field. Contractors participating in the survey were asked to select the top three reasons they find construction to be a good career choice and the top three myths about working in this industry.
The most widely selected reason for working in construction is the earning potential, chosen by 70% of respondents. However, one of the top myths about construction as a career, according to 40% of respondents, is that you can’t support a family on construction pay. In addition, over half (56%) of contractors believe that one of the top ways to recruit more workers is, in fact, to develop a better reputation for this industry for high pay. The myth of low pay is clearly a deterrent to drawing more people into construction, and one that needs to be debunked.
Many contractors also report that some of the top myths about construction are that it is a dirty job (selected in the top three by 61%), that it requires brute strength, not training (55%), and that it is just a job and not a real career (52%). However, these are again upended by the experience of contractors themselves. The second highest percentage (43%) regard the opportunities for career advancement as one of the top reasons that construction is a good career, and around one third also note the ability to gain skills on the job (37%) and diversity of work experiences (27%) as top aspects of their work. All of these demonstrate that for practitioners in the industry, construction is a rewarding career with satisfying, challenging work, a message that doesn’t seem to be heard by the public.
Recruiting Workers Under 30
Contractors were also asked about the top ways to attract more workers under 30 to the industry. Not surprisingly, high pay was selected by the highest percentage, and good benefits followed close behind. The next two means of attracting younger workers are related to construction as a career not a job (clear path for advancement) and the work itself (satisfaction derived from a career that involves making something). Again, the most important element appears to be upending the long-standing myths about working in construction to draw younger workers.
Means of Recruiting New Workers
One structural challenge facing the construction industry in its goal to attract new workers is the fragmented ways in which they are recruited. Unlike the other questions in this spotlight survey, contractors were asked to identify all means for recruiting workers, not just the top three. However, no single recruitment strategy, not even placing traditional advertisements for workers, was selected by even half of the contractors surveyed. With no standard ways to find workers, it is not surprising that the positive message about construction careers can become diluted. This is a challenge that few small or midsize contracting companies are in a position to tackle effectively, and it may need to be addressed by larger institutions within the industry in order to address the growing crisis of skilled worker shortages in construction.
By David Reaves, Senior Economist, Dodge Data & Analytics
According to the most recent report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), non-farm payrolls added a whopping 304,000 jobs in the first month of 2019. This mark greatly exceeded the consensus estimate of 165,000 from Economists surveyed by Bloomberg. In the face of the longest government shutdown in U.S. history and general trepidation that the current U.S. expansion could be nearing an end, private-sector hiring remained steadfast and robust. In fact, the few discernable effects of the government shutdown were a slight rise in the January unemployment rate from 3.9% to 4.0%, and the number of temporary layoffs from the household survey rose by 175,000 (the majority of which were furloughed government workers). Separately, average hourly earnings for all private nonfarm employees rose by 3 cents, a 3.2% year-over-year increase. While wages did increase, wage growth decelerated from a 10-cent increase in December.
As always, some expected revisions were evident in the monthly data. Total nonfarm payrolls were boosted by 20,000 in November (to 196,000) and lowered by 90,000 in December (to 222,000). Even after those revisions, the 3-month average for job gains sits firmly at 241,000 per month. This number lends confidence to the general narrative that the U.S. labor market remains healthy. Touching on a few specifics, the leisure/hospitality (+74,000), education/health services (+55,000), and construction (+52,000) sectors all performed admirably posting more than 50,000 new jobs each. The transportation/warehousing and retail trade sectors experienced solid advances after seeing losses in December. The largest negative from this month’s release was a slowdown in manufacturing payroll growth, which posted a five-month low for new hiring in January (+13,000).
The strength of the BLS’ recent monthly employment estimates should provide assurance of the current strength in the U.S. job market. Looking forward, however, some downside risks to the economy could pose problems for the labor market. The threat of another government shutdown, continued trade tensions with China, the threat of new tariffs on the already softening manufacturing sector, and the effect of political unease on consumer confidence are all whispers of concern that can be heard across the nation. So far, the whispers are just that, whispers.
By Kim Kennedy, Director of Forecasting Dodge Data & Analytics
It’s not news that the retail industry has been under a great deal of stress in recent years as online shopping pockets an ever-increasing share of consumer spending. New construction data from Dodge Data & Analytics show that even the giants of retail are not immune to this stress. Although Walmart spent roughly $1 billion in 2018 on new construction, additions, and renovations, that level of spending was down 11% from 2017 – and 2017 was down 18% from the previous year. Despite the declines, Walmart still outspent second-place Aldi’s Food Store by three-to-one last year.
Not all of the largest retailers lowered construction over the past year, however. Competitive pressures still kept some in expansion mode, or at least in renovation mode. Second-place Aldi’s, for example, grew construction starts by 2% in 2018 to $311 million following a 77% surge in 2017. Third-place Target has also been on a construction spree with increases of 183% in 2016, 52% in 2017, and another 19% in 2018 which brought the total dollar value of starts to $229 million.
Given the size of the stores, it’s not surprising that the big box retailers were well-represented among 2018’s 20 largest spenders for retail construction. Seventh-place Costco joined Walmart and Target among the top 20. Four supermarket chains were also on the list: Aldi (#2), Publix (#5), Kroger (#9), and new to the U.S., Lidl (#17). Two home improvement/hardware stores were also among the top 20: Menard’s and Harbor Freight Tools, which brags of opening a new store every three days. Not all of the top 20, however, have massive store footprints: three fast food restaurants were on the list (McDonald’s, Chick-Fil-A, and Taco Bell), as well as two dollar stores and two auto parts dealers. And for those of us addicted to our morning coffee, it’s noteworthy that Starbucks will soon be on even more street corners – it placed #14 among the top retail chains for construction starts in 2018.
2020 DODGE CONSTRUCTION OUTLOOK REPORT AVAILABLE NOW –Purchase Here!
NEW JERSEY — February 18, 2020 — Total construction starts slipped 6% from December to January to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $759.2 billion. All three major categories moved lower in January —residential building starts fell 8%, nonresidential building lost 6%, and nonbuilding starts moved 2% lower. Read More
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