National construction totals hide markets moving in opposite directions. Here’s what that means for building product manufacturers setting 2027 territory, coverage and budget plans.
Key takeaways
- National construction totals hide markets moving in opposite directions. Adjusted for inflation, Dodge projects 2027 residential starts up 2%, nonresidential up 1% and nonbuilding down 10%.
- Much of the recent growth in commercial planning comes from data centers. Take them out, and the trend is far flatter.
- A plan built mainly on last year’s volume can leave slowing markets over-covered and rising ones under-covered.
- Before you lock your 2027 plan, separate big markets from growing ones and focus on demand your products can actually reach.
Want a closer look? Download our guide, How to Find Your Best Growth Markets in 2027, for a practical framework to help your team evaluate shifting demand and prioritize growth opportunities.
Every fall, building product manufacturers face the same planning question: where should next year’s growth dollars go? Most plans answer it by looking back. The regions and sectors that delivered the most volume last year get the most territory attention, Sales coverage and marketing budget.
That approach gets riskier when markets move in different directions. Heading into 2027, they are.
The headline is hiding the market
Dodge Construction Network’s latest outlook, presented at Outlook 2027 in September, shows how much a national number can mask. Commercial planning activity, measured by the Dodge Momentum Index, has climbed steeply in recent years. Remove data centers, and the trend is far flatter. Unless your products go into data centers, a big part of that headline growth isn’t your growth.
The segments are pulling apart, too. Adjusted for inflation, Dodge projects 2027 residential starts to be up 2% and nonresidential up 1%, while nonbuilding construction (such as infrastructure and utilities) is projected to be down 10%. Inside those categories, the mix is shifting as well. In office, renovation is projected to overtake new construction in 2027, which changes which products are in demand even where a sector’s total looks flat.
Even the forecast is moving. Between Dodge’s April and July 2026 forecasts, expected 2026 growth was revised up sharply, while the outlook for total 2027 starts in nominal terms (before adjusting for inflation) moved into decline. A plan built on last year’s picture, or even last quarter’s, may already be out of date.
BPM leaders already feel the pressure
In Dodge’s 2026 survey of building product manufacturers, the future of commercial construction demand was the topic respondents most wanted to hear about, chosen by 42% overall and 52% of senior leaders. Respondents also pointed to sales-cycle length, pipeline coverage and market-share change as areas where they are underperforming. (The survey is small, with 38 respondents, so treat it as directional.)
Those concerns become more important when growth is uneven. A plan built mainly on last year’s volume can leave slowing markets over-covered and rising ones under-covered, putting share and pipeline at risk.
Three questions to ask before you lock your 2027 plan
- Which of our largest markets by volume are slowing in 2027? Big and growing are no longer the same thing.
- How much of the growth in our plan depends on sectors we don’t serve? Set aside the demand your products can’t reach and see what’s left.
- Where is demand rising that we’re under-covering? These markets rarely show up in a plan built on last year’s results.
Find your best growth markets in 2027
The right growth markets aren’t always the biggest ones. How to Find Your Best Growth Markets in 2027 helps building product manufacturers evaluate shifting demand and prioritize opportunities using a practical framework: Invest, Develop, Defend or Deprioritize.