Economic Risks Persist, but Key Sectors Signal Positive 2027 Outlook
BOSTON, MA – January 8, 2026 — The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), issued by Dodge Construction Network grew 7.0% in December to 296.8 (2000=100) from the upwardly revised November reading of 277.4. Over the month, commercial planning improved 3.5% and institutional planning increased by 14.9%. In 2025, the DMI was up 37% from the average reading in 2024. The commercial portion was up 35% and the institutional portion was up 43% over the same period.
“Nonresidential construction starts (excluding manufacturing and transportation) are projected to accelerate in 2027 alongside sustained planning momentum in data center, healthcare and recreational building construction throughout 2025,” stated Sarah Martin, Associate Director of Forecasting at Dodge Construction Network. “Inflationary pressures will further support nominal activity levels, even as economic risks remain elevated. Notably, projects moved through the planning process marginally quicker in 25-Q4 (16 months vs. 18 months in 25-Q3), offering a modest boost to our near-term outlook.”
On the commercial side, planning momentum accelerated most strongly for warehouses, office buildings and data centers. Within institutional planning, education and recreational building activity showed the strongest growth, while planning for public buildings pulled back after elevated activity in mid-2025. Year-over-year, the DMI was up 50% when compared to December 2024. The commercial segment was up 45% (+30% when data centers are removed) and the institutional segment was up 60% over the same period.
A total of 34 projects valued at $100 million or more entered planning throughout December. The largest commercial projects included four phases of the Google Data Center Campus in Summit, Oklahoma – each valued at $500 million dollars. Additionally, Phases 2 and 3 of the Central Park Data Information Processing Center in Loxahatchee, Florida entered planning – valued at $473 million and $431 million respectively. The largest institutional projects to enter planning were the $450 million Atrium Health Hospital in Fort Mill, South Carolina, the $295 million St. Joseph Hospital Tower (Phase 2 Expansion) in Stockton, California, and the $182 million SunRay Casino and Park in Clovis, New Mexico.
The DMI is a monthly measure based on the three-month moving value of nonresidential building projects going into planning, shown to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year to 18 months.
